Xaxas
20.02.2026
The Swiss stage is done. The playoffs at the BT Arena decide everything.
Eight teams enter a single elimination bracket with a third place decider. That detail matters. Any quarterfinal winner guarantees at least two series. The Grand Final is a best of five. In a plus one for correct and minus one for incorrect Pick'Ems system, match volume is your edge.
If you want to build monthly rankings, prioritize teams that realistically reach two or three series. Choose battles wisely.
The third place decider changes bracket math.
A semifinal loser who wins third place plays three series. A grand final loser also plays three. Quarterfinal losers play one.
You are not only picking a champion. You are projecting map count, CT side stability, and individual rating accumulation.
Falcons bring pace and firepower. PARIVISION bring slow defaults and clutch control. Map vetoes decide this series.
Lean Falcons due to higher fragging depth. Upset path exists if the game slows into repeated 11 11 scenarios.
NAVI showed strong CT side streak potential in Swiss. MOUZ are structured and rarely collapse.
Lean NAVI for ceiling. MOUZ win if they control early economy and dictate veto comfort.
Vitality are the most stable team in the bracket. Clean anti ecos, strong CT setups, consistent ratings.
Strong lean Vitality. This is your safest semifinal anchor.
FURIA hold the recent head to head edge. The MongolZ already proved upset capability.
Lean FURIA based on experience. This matchup is closer than public perception.
Projected semifinals:
Falcons vs NAVI
Vitality vs FURIA
Lean Falcons over NAVI due to fragging depth.
Lean Vitality over FURIA due to structure and map pool control.
Projected Grand Final: Vitality vs Falcons
Prediction: Vitality win the BO5.
Projected third place: NAVI over FURIA.
If you expect a bracket deviation, this is where you separate from the pack.
apEX is on roughly two thirds of Fantasy teams at 188k. He offers value on the tournament favorite and strong rating consistency.
Vitality and Falcons dominate pick rates. High ownership means high volatility if the bracket breaks.
Safe build: stack Vitality with one or two Falcons. Aggressive build: fade one favorite and stack NAVI or FURIA for third place upside.
Match count is king. Build around teams likely to play at least two series.
Xaxas
20.02.2026
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